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Last Updated on January 12, 2026
If you’re reading this in early January 2026, you’re watching gold sprint out of the blocks. Spot just printed fresh all-time highs above $4,560/oz, with intraday pushes beyond $4,600 as the dollar softened and safe-haven demand flared.
That means the debate isn’t “can gold ever get back above $2,500?”—it’s “how far can this cycle run, and what are the most credible targets for the rest of 2026?”
One of the loudest voices on that question is Goldman Sachs.
Below, we unpack Goldman’s 2026 calls, the logic behind them, how they compare with other banks and research shops, and a practical way to use these forecasts without getting whipsawed by every headline.
The headline: What is Goldman Sachs actually predicting for 2026?
Goldman has flagged two useful waypoints for this year:
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Mid-2026: In autumn 2025, Goldman published a note saying gold could hit ~$4,000/oz by mid-2026, driven by strong central-bank buying and easier Fed policy that would support ETF inflows. That was their interim waypoint, not the finish line.
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Year-end 2026: In October and again in mid-December 2025, Reuters reported that Goldman raised its year-end 2026 target to $4,900/oz (up from $4,300), citing persistent official-sector demand and the potential for Western ETF buying to broaden. That $4,900 base-case price is the marker most investors quote today.
Goldman’s own 2026 commodities outlook also emphasized ongoing central-bank purchases (they penciled in monthly averages that remain elevated relative to the last decade)—a structural tailwind that helps explain why their forecast moved higher into year-end.
Translation: Goldman’s roadmap was $4,000 by mid-year, stretching to $4,900 by December 2026, with upside risk if private capital (ETFs and bars/coins) joins central banks in size. Independent roundups (Investopedia/Yahoo Finance) summarized those same figures for mainstream readers.
Context check: Where are we starting 2026?
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Fresh records: On January 12, 2026, spot gold set a new all-time high around $4,563.61/oz, boosted by a softer dollar, rate-cut chatter, and jumpy geopolitics. That’s a high-base starting point for evaluating 2026 targets.
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Macro sparks: Early-January headlines added premium to safe-haven trades by raising concerns about Federal Reserve independence, helping push gold and silver higher while the dollar slipped.
If you’re asking, “Is $4,900 still realistic from here?” note that Goldman’s $4,900 was a December 2026 base-case endpoint set before the new year’s breakout. The fact that prices blasted to fresh highs early in the year doesn’t invalidate the call; it just shifts the path we might travel to get there.
Why Goldman thinks gold goes higher: the four dials
Goldman’s research—and frankly the broader literature—tends to revolve around four macro dials. When they point the same way, gold tends to trend:
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Real interest rates
Lower (or more negative) real yields reduce gold’s opportunity cost and often precede multi-quarter advances. A 2026 path of easier policy (or at least lower real rates) is a core pillar in Goldman’s mid-year and year-end targets. -
The U.S. dollar
Gold’s long-run inverse correlation with the dollar is well documented; a softer DXY is an uplift for dollar-priced bullion. With the dollar sagging on policy-credibility worries and rate expectations, that dial is supportive to start 2026. -
Official-sector demand
Central banks have purchased heavy tonnage in recent years. Goldman’s 2026 outlook explicitly called for continued robust buying, which tends to firm the floor under dips. -
Portfolio diversification flows
Western ETF inflows broaden the bid beyond central banks. In 2025, Goldman cited the possibility that private diversification becomes a second engine—an upside risk to their already-elevated base case.
How do other forecasters stack up against Goldman?
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Consensus (late-2025) tilted bullish, with some houses seeing $4,000–$5,000 as a reasonable 2026 range. That aligns with Goldman’s mid-year $4,000 and year-end $4,900 path.
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Reuters poll (Oct 2025): The annual forecast compilation showed the median edging above $4,000 for 2026 (avg. near $4,275), a big step up from prior years. That poll aggregates banks and commodity consultancies, so it’s a useful “wisdom of crowds” check.
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Morgan Stanley & others: Morgan Stanley spoke to $4,500 by mid-2026 in a late-2025 roundup. That’s more aggressive than Goldman’s $4,000 mid-year waypoint but broadly in the same neighborhood.
Takeaway: Goldman’s $4,900 isn’t an outlier anymore—it’s at the bullish end of an increasingly bullish street view.
What has changed since Goldman’s December call?
The price itself: gold promptly set new records in early January 2026 amid a swirl of policy-credibility headlines. That confirms—but also complicates—the path to year-end targets:
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Confirming signal: The same forces Goldman highlighted (safe-haven demand, softer dollar risk, lower real rates) are visible right now. That validates the direction of travel.
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Path risk: Starting from a higher base invites volatility. After strong spurts, gold often digests gains (sideways or in swift pullbacks) before attempting a new leg. That’s normal even inside bull cycles.
Scenario map for 2026 (anchored on Goldman’s targets)
Let’s translate research into practical paths you can monitor:
Base Case (closest to Goldman’s plan)
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Assumptions: Real yields drift lower, the dollar remains soft to sideways, central banks keep buying, and Western ETFs contribute modestly.
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Path: A range-with-an-uptrend—sharp pullbacks, bought; new highs, tested. $4,900 by Dec-26 stands as a reasonable finish line.
Bull Case (Goldman’s upside risk)
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Assumptions: Same as base, plus broadening private participation (ETFs, bars/coins) and/or a deeper hit to policy credibility that weakens the dollar more sharply.
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Path: A step-function move higher earlier in the year; sustained time above the early-January records. Targets north of $4,900 become thinkable if ETF inflows surge.
Bear (or Delay) Case
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Assumptions: Real yields back up, the dollar rallies for more than a few weeks, and geopolitical heat subsides; central-bank buying slows.
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Path: Gold mean-reverts toward prior breakout zones before rebuilding. The year might still end elevated, but not at $4,900.
How to actually use these forecasts (without playing ping-pong with headlines)
Forecasts are north stars, not GPS turn-by-turn directions. Here’s a framework that respects Goldman’s research while staying disciplined:
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Stage entries and adds. If you want exposure, don’t go all-in at a fresh record. Use a phased plan (e.g., 30% now, 30% on a routine dip, 40% reserved for either clean breakouts or deeper retraces). This converts volatility from “enemy” to “entry helper.”
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Track the four dials:
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Real yields (10-yr TIPS),
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Dollar trend (DXY),
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Safe-haven headlines (policy independence; geopolitics),
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Official-sector/ETF flows updates.
When two or more line up bullishly, your add-triggers are stronger.
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Size the sleeve, then rebalance. If gold rockets and pushes your metals sleeve beyond target, trim back to the band you set while nerves are calm.
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Mind the wrapper. Choose between physical (recognizable mints; know your premiums), vaulted/allocated, or ETFs/closed-end funds (liquidity and easy rebalancing). If you use retirement accounts, follow the custodian/depository rules.
What could prove Goldman wrong (and what to watch)
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A sustained dollar rebound and/or a rise in real yields—especially if growth proves hotter while inflation cools—can sap momentum. Keep an eye on the FOMC path and inflation expectations.
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A fade in official-sector demand. Goldman’s thesis leans on persistent central-bank buying; a visible slowdown would challenge the higher year-end target.
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Resolution of policy-credibility fears. If the January fireworks calm quickly—dollar firms, rate-cut odds drop—gold could pause beneath $4,900 longer than bulls expect.
How does silver and the rest of the metals complex fit in?
Reports into January 2026 show silver ripping alongside gold. For asset allocators, silver can act like gold with a turbo—bigger upswings, louder corrections—while platinum and palladium remain more cyclical/auto-linked. If you’re using gold as a macro hedge, keep silver as a smaller, tactical slice rather than your core. (Analyst notes also flagged tight inventories and squeeze-type volatility across precious metals in recent sessions.)
Comparing price paths: a quick scoreboard
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Goldman Sachs: $4,000 by mid-2026, $4,900 by Dec-26 (base case), with upside if ETF/private flows broaden.
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Reuters poll (Oct-2025): $4,275 average for 2026 (consensus).
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Morgan Stanley (Oct-2025): ~$4,500 by mid-2026 (more aggressive than Goldman’s mid-year waypoint).
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Other roundups (Dec-2025): Many outlets framed $4,000–$5,000 as the mainstream 2026 lane, citing Goldman’s $4,900 as a marquee target.
What this means for you: The “center of gravity” for 2026 has shifted higher. Goldman’s numbers sit near the upper bound of respectable, published forecasts—but the market action in early January makes those targets plausible, not fanciful.
FAQs (straight answers)
Q: Did Goldman change its target after gold’s January breakout?
A: As of mid-January 2026, the reported $4,900 by December 2026 base case still anchors media references to Goldman’s outlook. If they update it, expect wire services to flag it quickly—watch for new notes.
Q: If gold is already above $4,560, isn’t $4,900 kind of “meh”?
A: Remember it’s a base case into year-end, not a daily price target. The route may include pullbacks and consolidations. Goldman also points to upside risk if private ETF flows broaden.
Q: How much should I rely on one bank’s forecast?
A: Treat it as one informed scenario. Cross-check with consensus polls (Reuters), official-sector demand trends, and the four dials. Then fit exposure to your risk plan.
Q: Could gold fall hard even with a bullish year-end target out there?
A: Absolutely. Gold is notorious for sharp corrections inside bull cycles. That’s why phased entries and rebalance rules beat all-in bets. Early-2026 headlines themselves are a reminder of how fast the tape can move.
A simple, practical plan for 2026 (built around Goldman’s $4,900 marker)
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Define the job of gold in your portfolio (hedge, store of value, diversifier).
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Size the sleeve (e.g., 5–15% of portfolio, depending on risk tolerance).
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Choose the wrapper (physical bars/coins; vaulted/allocated; ETFs/CEFs).
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Stage the buys (30/30/40 approach):
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30% now (you’re paying for certainty at a new-high regime),
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30% on a routine pullback,
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40% reserved for:
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a confirmed breakout & hold above early-January highs, or
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a deeper retrace to prior breakout zones.
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Monitor the four dials monthly: real yields, dollar trend, policy/credibility headlines, official-sector/ETF flows. Add on alignment; trim on overshoot.
Bottom line
Goldman Sachs’ $4,900 by December 2026 call sits at the bullish end of a rising tide of forecasts—and the year has already started with record highs that fit the thesis: softer dollar risk, lower real-rate expectations, jumpy geopolitics, and steady official-sector demand. None of that guarantees a straight shot to $4,900. But it does argue that pullbacks are pauses, not endings, unless the dials flip (stronger dollar, higher real yields, weaker official demand).
Use forecasts like Goldman’s as guide rails, not gospel. Build a plan you can actually stick to—phased entries, clear size bands, and unemotional rebalancing. If the four dials keep pointing the right way, 2026 won’t just be the year gold made new highs; it may be the year those highs became the new normal.
Disclaimer: This article is for education and general information only—not financial, legal, or tax advice. Markets, forecasts, and prices can change quickly and may differ from the examples discussed. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified professional before making any decisions; you’re responsible for your choices and outcomes.
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